Analysis: NP3 Fastigheter (NP3.ST) — AKM1 research 2026

NP3 Fastigheter (NP3.ST) is in the research library for one single reason: the company passed the candidate rule. The rule is deterministic — hard gate on cash coverage (V19), data coverage 71,1 % against the floor of 70 % as well as yellow status with AKM1 above 65 % of max (68,8 %). No taste, no opinion: 48,9 of 71,1 possible points.

This is an automatically generated research overview; the full AK1A analysis is produced manually.

This is what the AKM1 profile looks like

A total of 48,9 of 71,1 points (68,8 %). The strongest category is Profitability, the weakest Catalyst. 9 of 20 variables are unset — the basis builds on 11 measured. The three strongest variables, with the assessment's motivation verbatim:

- V08 EBITDA margin — 5/5 p: EBIT margin 74,9 % as a LOWER-BOUND proxy for the EBITDA margin → linear band 5/5

- V12 Revenue stability — 5/5 p: Revenue volatility σ(yoy) 2,1 % → stability band 5/5 (4-year series — short basis, noted)

- V19 Cash coverage — new share issue risk — 5/5 p: FCF margin 31,4 % positive → 5/5 (self-financing according to the r2 V19 table; burn-rate not computed by P1 because the cash flow is positive)

The wave position

All five horizons (micro, short, medium, long, mega) are unset — and unset means unset: the wave engine never guesses, it requires time series that the sources do not yet deliver. The only wave trace is the dynamic: improving. Fundamental waves not classified at aggregate level: the FVag engine requires time series (revenue, margins, valuation multiples over time) that the basis lacks — 'unset' means unset, the engine never guesses. Only 1 of 20 variables has classifiable wave data; the dynamic (forbattras) is the only wave trace.

Floor and risks

The value floor (NAV proxy) sits with the margin -42,2 % — Book value per share, where the stock represents booked equity, as NAV proxy (the property exception) — NCAV data is missing at the sources.

- 9 of 20 AKM1 variables are unset in the basis (V02, V03, V11, V13, V15, V16, V17, V18, V20) — the analysis builds on 11 measured variables, not the full model.

- Liquidity (V11) unset — balance sheet data is missing in the sources, the liquidity risk cannot be assessed.

- Interest rate sensitivity: the property values behind the NAV proxy fall as the required rate of return rises — the floor moves.

- Yellow status: AKM1 68,8 % of max — the middle layer; one more weak measurement moves the row toward red.

- Missing second source: source B (MarketStack) lacked a fresh price course at collection — price and valuation were not double-checked (noted in the company universe).

What would falsify the picture

A research picture without conditions that can kill it is not research. These conditions are measurable with variable ID and threshold:

- V19 cash coverage < 12 months within 2 quarters falsifies the yellow status — portV19 activates and the row turns red according to the cross-tabulation's D1 rule.

- fvagDynamik → 'weakens' in the next cross-tabulation run falsifies the selection basis — the candidacy is re-examined immediately (the dynamic is forbattras in today's basis).

- data coverage < 0,6 in the next delivery falsifies the status basis — green requires ≥ 60 % (D1), the public library ≥ 70 %; NP3.ST stands at 71,1 % today.

- V08 EBITDA margin below 10 % in the next annual report falsifies the thesis for profitability — the AKM1 profile's strongest leg (V08 EBITDA margin, 5/5 p today).

- relative AKM1 below 0,50 in the next measurement falsifies the yellow status (→ red according to D1) — today 68,8 %.

Go deeper

• The course v08-ebitda-marginal — the variable in the company's AKM1 profile
• The course v12-intaktsstabilitet — the variable in the company's AKM1 profile
• The course v19-kapitalforbranning — the variable in the company's AKM1 profile
• The full overview of NP3 Fastigheter — the whole schema with selection rule and outcome
• Complete guide to Swedish stock analysis — the method from the ground up

FAQ

What is a NAV proxy and why is it used for property companies?

NAV (net asset value) är värdet av bolagets tillgångar minus skulder. Källorna levererar ingen direkt NAV-data för NP3, så modellen använder bokfört eget kapital per aktie som proxy — med fastighetsundantaget att bokförda värden kan ligga under marknadsvärden. Marginalen på -42,2 procent beskriver kursens läge mot proxyn, inte någon målnivå.

How do interest rates affect a property company's value floor?

Fastighetsvärdena bakom NAV-proxyn sjunker när avkastningskravet stiger, eftersom en given hyresström då diskonteras hårdare. Därför noteras räntekänslighet som en egen risk i profilen — golvet rör på sig med ränteläget. Det är ett exempel på hur modellen kopplar makroförhållanden till variablernas mått.

What does the improving dynamic in the wave position mean?

Among the variables with classifiable wave data, the fundamental dynamic points upward — improving rather than stable or weakening. It is the only wave trace in the data and covers just one of twenty variables, so a weak signal rather than a full trend picture. If the dynamic changes to weakening, the candidacy is re-examined immediately.

How is the EBITDA margin calculated with EBIT as a proxy?

When the source provides the EBIT margin, it is used as a lower bound for the EBITDA margin, since EBITDA is always at least as large as EBIT. NP3's EBIT margin of 74,9 percent therefore yields the top score in the linear band. The calculation is explained step by step in the course v08-ebitda-marginal.

This is an automatically generated research overview; the full AK1A analysis is produced manually. Research material — not advice. Educational research, never investment advice (law 2007:528).